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25.07.2019 02:50
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An in-depth look at the early returns Andre Dawson Jersey , and what precedent says about them"Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsBreaking down this year’s Hall of Fame votingNew,5commentsAn in-depth look at the early returns, and what precedent says about themlast year. Headlining the new names are Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, and Andy Pettitte. Edgar Martinez, in his tenth and final year on the ballot, leads the returning candidates; he managed 70.4% of the vote last time, and looks to be a likely inductee this time. Mike Mussina (63.5%), Roger Clemens (57.3%), Barry Bonds (56.4%), and Curt Schilling (51.2%) were the next runners-up. Some ResourcesFor those interested in the Cooperstown discussion, the single best resource to watch in the coming weeks is Ryan Thibodaux’s Ballot Tracker. For years now, Ryan has down incredible work tracking down every publicly released official ballot and tallying the results, and as become enough of an institution in Hall circles that some writers who don’t want to release their ballots to the public at large will tell him their votes secretly so it can be added to the tracker anonymously. It’s updated regularly, and great to keep an eye on (and if you’d prefer just a summary, that’s here).If you’re interested in comparing the stats, Baseball-Reference is especially comprehensive and even compiled all of the major numbers for the ballot into that ballot I linked earlier. They now include JAWS as well, writer and Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe’s attempt to combine peak and career value and put it onto a scale with the players already elected to Cooperstown. Speaking of Jaffe, the author of the wonderful Cooperstown Casebook is continuing his long-running annual series looking at every player on the ballot over at Fangraphs. And historian Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats is something I’ve been following for years, similar to JAWS in its attempt to combine peak, longevity, and existing Hall selections. If you find the question of who should be in Cooperstown interesting, those are some great places to start.Other Assorted ObservationsWe’re still seeing high vote totalsThe last few years, we’ve seen a lot of voters using more of their ten ballot spots. That seems to be continuing this year, where revealed ballots are averaging just over eight and a half names each, a total that’s not too far out of line with the last few years. Voters who don’t reveal their ballots usually vote for fewer players, so expect those totals to drop on the final totals. But it’s good to see voters are still grappling with the loaded ballot. This is probably Edgar Martinez’s yearEdgar Martinez missed by just 20 votes last year, and has a lot of factors going in his favor this year. He’s been gaining in votes for a few years now, as many strong candidates do. But candidates who get that close usually see an extra boost on top of that as more voters convert to their case. Plus, this is his final year on the ballot, which also usually gives players another boost. All of that seemed like it would be enough to push him over the edge, and sure enough, he’s at 90.1% through the first 101 ballots.Mike Mussina will take over for Edgar Martinez as the one to watchLast year, Mike Mussina was right behind Edgar, finishing 49 votes short at 63.5%, and it looks like he’ll be taking over the role of “Guy right on the borderline” for 2019. He needs just an extra 11.5 points, and he’s gained more than that two of the last three years, but it’s no guarantee he’ll make it this time. Right now Ron Santo Jersey , he’s sitting at 82.2%, which may be enough of a buffer to keep him above 75%, but we’ll need to keep a close eye on how he tracks this final few weeks. The ten-year limit draws close for Fred McGriff and Larry WalkerFred McGriff has reached his tenth and final year on the ballot, while Larry Walker is on attempt number nine. Neither looks likely to make it this year, but both are interesting. McGriff compares favorably to recent Veterans Committee choice Harold Baines, as someone who came close to hitting one of the traditional milestones, and a strong finish this year could set him up for a strong performance on future Veterans Committee ballots. Right now, he sits at 34.7%, up from 23.2% last year (which is narrowly is second-best performance in voting).Walker, meanwhile, has another year after this. Right now, he’s at 63.4% (up from his career-best 34.1% last time, and way ahead of where he was tracking at this point in the early votes), which seems to indicate voters mobilizing to his cause. Can he pull off two large jumps in total to make it in under the wire? If he can’t, he might also set himself up for a good hearing from the VC, but I’m sure he and his fans would prefer that he make it in before then.There’s an interesting bunch at 50%In addition to Martinez, Mussina, and the four players who were inducted last year, three other players topped 50% of the vote last year. This has been a huge milestone historically, as only one player (Gil Hodges) has ever reached 50% in the writers’ vote and not gone on to eventual induction. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens both finished in the mid-50s last year, and while both are tracking in the low-70s, there are causes for caution. Their totals are usually much worse among voters who don’t reveal their ballots, and they’ve only converted one returning voter. Still, every new voter so far has voted for them, so they are still making progress.Curt Schilling, meanwhile, has had seven voters go from no to yes while losing only one, and has been named on a majority of new voters’ ballots as well. He probably won’t be getting in this year (he’s tracking at 73.3%, and it’s crowded at the top), but he could very easily set himself up to make it in the next time around.The rookie class is fairly deepWe all knew Mariano Rivera was going to be a first-ballot selection. He won’t be the first unanimous choice, but he’s still yet to drop a vote through about a quarter of the potential ballots, so even if you were taking a “let’s see what the voters think” approach, you can pretty safely assume he’ll be on the stage come this July.What’s more surprising is the late Roy Halladay’s performance. Hall voters have been confused in their approach to electing starting pitchers as of late (just look at how Mussina and Schilling have languished on the ballot, especially compared to first-ballot choices like Tom Glavine and John Smoltz), but they appear to have come down on the side of the two-time Cy Young winner. Halladay is still over 94%, giving him plenty of wiggle room the rest of the way. If you were the betting type, I would say that Halladay is more likely than not to make it right not Some had doubts about how Todd Helton and Andy Pettitte would fare, but they’re standing strong at 20% and 10% so far, respectively. At the very least http://www.chicagocubsteamshop.com/authentic-david-ross-jersey , it looks like we’ll have many more years to discuss their qualifications. Helton even seems to have already secured the necessary votes to reach 5% and return in 2020. The interesting returning down-ballot namesThere are a lot of interesting names returning in the lower half of the ballot as well. Omar Vizquel is currently at 37.6%, which is about where he finished last year (37.0%). However, Vizquel has a big bloc of voters in the “old school” crowd, meaning that he’s one of the few players on the ballot who usually sees his totals noticeably increase on the final tally. He could very realistically top 40% this year. Making that mark in just his second year is a promising start, and could put him in a prime position as the top of the ballot clears out.Scott Rolen has also seen an uptick in his percentage, and now sits at around 20%. I’m a huge advocate for Rolen’s case (he’s one of the top ten third basemen of all-time, easily), so seeing that kind of improvement is promising. Chipper Jones getting inducted last year has probably helped him, both in putting another third baseman in Cooperstown and in removing him from direct comparisons to Rolen. Hopefully, this newfound momentum carries forward.Similarly, Billy Wagner is seeing a handful of new voters convert to his cause, and is now around 14%. It makes sense, as he’s pretty comparable to recent inductees Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith, but getting Mariano Rivera elected and leaving him as the unquestioned best reliever on the ballot will probably help him immensely going forward.The rest of the ballot seems largely stagnant, however, as Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa haven’t moved much. Andruw Jones is even in danger of falling below 5%, which would be a shame for someone who is one of the best fielders of all-time.Next year will be a big opportunity for holdover candidatesThe depth of the newcomers here is probably holding down the increases everyone else is seeing. Electing Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Trevor Hoffman freed up a lot of space for voters to use, but a lot of those are being immediately re-invested in Rivera and Halladay. There are still gains to be had, as Helton and Pettitte aren’t pulling in the types of votes that Guerrero and Hoffman did, which is why players like Walker, Martinez, and Mussina can see some jumps, but it still limits how many spaces there are to go around.That is not the case for 2020. Next year’s ballot will be substantially lighter, with Martinez, Rivera, and Halladay likely elected, Mussina possibly joining them, and McGriff aging off. Derek Jeter will be joining the ballot, but after him, the next-best choices are probably Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. Weak rookie classes on the ballot have traditionally been the best opportunity for backlog candidates to make their move, and another large class of inductees will free up hundreds of slots that might go to Walker, or Rolen, or Wagner, or whoever your pet candidate is. Maybe voters who have had to drop players due to the ten-player limit will be able to re-add them. In any case Ryne Sandberg Jersey , 2020 could potentially be the least-crowded ballot in a full decade. In that time, the Hall of Fame has made substantial tweaks to the rules of who gets to vote, dozens of new voters have joined the electorate, and existing voters have had to deal with a decade of deciding to juggle the players they viewed as qualified to get under the ten-player limit. It will be fascinating to see how this new environment mixes with a return to a ballot that isn’t bursting at the seams with qualified Hall candidates. NEW YORK (AP) — While players on the Yankees bench gaped at Gary Sánchez’s one-handed homer, manager Aaron Boone was already thinking about his next relief pitcher.“Once we got the lead,” he said, “we felt like we had a chance to really roll out our guys.”No surprise — Boone’s bullpen big guns delivered again.Article continues below ...Sánchez hit a tiebreaking, two-run homer in the fifth inning, Aroldis Chapman escaped trouble in the ninth and New York’s ‘pen held tight to beat the Boston Red Sox 5-3 Saturday night.After starter Domingo Germán was chased early, six Yankees relievers combined for 5 1/3 scoreless innings to lock down another victory over the rival Red Sox — New York is 4-0 to start the season series, a first since 2012.“We’ve done it a lot of different ways,” Boone said. “We’ve won games in a lot of different ways. Tonight was a battle. It was a heavyweight fight.”Chapman walked Mookie Betts and allowed a single to Andrew Benintendi leading off the ninth, but J.D. Martinez hit a double-play grounder and Rafael Devers rolled the last out to first. Chapman got his 17th save in 18 tries, closing out a game where Chad Green (1-2) and Adam Ottavino also stranded runners with timely strikeouts. The bullpen also pitched four shutout innings in a 4-1 win Friday and has covered 24 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings.The Yankees have won 15 of 18 and clinched their ninth straight series victory, a first for the franchise since 1998.Boston went 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position, including seven strikeouts. The Red Sox tied a season high with 14 strikeouts and matched a season most with their fourth straight loss.“We didn’t do too much with men in scoring position,” manager Alex Cora said. “We’ve been talking about this for like a week. There’s always traffic and all that, but we’re not getting that big hit.”Xander Bogaerts homered and had three hits for the Red Sox, who fell 9 1/2 games behind New York for the AL East lead. It’s Boston’s biggest deficit in the division since finishing 15 games out in 2015.“We’re not closing the gap,” starter Rick Porcello said. “We’re making it bigger. It’s tough.”Sánchez threw his hands at Porcello’s 2-2 slider well outside the strike zone and poked it an estimated 403 feet to right-center. It was Sánchez’s 18th homer, matching his total from an injury-spoiled 2018. He was in a five-way tie for the AL home run lead before connecting.“It was kind of a one-handed swing,” fellow slugger Luke Voit said. “I don’t know how he did it.”“Not many guys are capable of doing that,” Brett Gardner said.Right-hander Luis Cessa was warming for New York when Sánchez delivered his go-ahead drive. Boone quickly got Tommy Kahnle loose instead, setting up the back of the bullpen for another shutdown show.DJ LeMahieu’s two-run single put New York ahead 3-1 in the second, but Boston tied it in the fourth on Bogaerts’ leadoff homer and Sandy León’s second RBI single of the game.“Today, Sandy was the only one that got hits with men in scoring position,” Cora said. “We struck out too much today. Sometimes, it’s credit to them. Sometimes, it’s just we’re expanding the zone.”León was 3 for 3 before Cora replaced him with pinch-hitter Christian Vázquez with a runner on in the eighth. Vázquez hit into an inning-ending double play.Porcello (4-5) entered with a hot hand, but left after allowing five runs in 4 2/3 innings.Germán allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings, failing to qualify for what would have been his major league-leading 10th victory. He struck out eight but gave up six hits and two walks.“I think they wore him down,” Boone said. “They made it difficult for him.”Yankees DH Kendrys Morales ended a 1-for-19 skid with three hits. Voit also had three hits.BACK ON TOPBefore the game, Cora informed Betts that he would be hitting leadoff for the rest of the season. Betts batted first throughout his MVP 2018 season, but Cora opened this year experimenting with Benintendi in the top spot with Betts at No. 2. The duo was 2 for 9 with a walk and three strikeouts combined.TRAINER’S ROOMRed Sox: Boston placed World Series MVP Steve Pearce on the 10-day IL with a low back strain. 1B/OF Sam Travis was recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket. … RHP Nathan Eovaldi is set for a second simulated game Tuesday as he works back after having a loose body removed from his right elbow April 23. He threw 22 pitches in a sim game Friday.Yankees: OF Clint Frazier was pulled an inning after being hit by a pitch in the left elbow. X-rays came back negative, and he’ll be re-evaluated Sunday. … Boone said SS Didi Gregorius could join New York for its series at Cleveland from June 7-9. Gregorius is with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on a rehab assignment following Tommy John surgery last fall.UP NEXTBoston’s David Price (2-2) and New York’s CC Sabathia (3-1) face off in a showdown of Cy Young Award-winning left-handers.

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